Back to Traders
8C
Consensus PnL -$490K · win rate 28% (8–21, n=29) · PM monthly #515 · holds 7 consensus positions
0x8c80d213...c03102c3Polymarket
🐋Whale⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-490.5K
Record
8W / 21L
Win Rate
28.0%
of 29 settled
Batting Avg
52.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2216
Source
PM monthly #515
Trades
17,732
Markets
84
Volume
$12.6M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $438K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $398K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $156K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $139K · now 17¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $13K · now 73¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes $507 · now 6¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $397 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
Specialties
28 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 56¢- Tennis
+17 pts
side won 77% of 13 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +24%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 83% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 100% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 75% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 90% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.