Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $861 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$861.49

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.1¢

-82% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$861.48

Total Shares574,323

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

191 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SE SecondWindCapitalCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.9K	$396.92	$-2.5K	36% 25-45 (70)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$469.42	$269.16	-$598.07	55% 1191-966 (2157)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$882.71	$136.83	-$745.89	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
DonkovCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$66.49	$35.72	-$30.77	71% 968-396 (1364)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$50.55	$9.72	-$40.91	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$5	+$5	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$3	+$3	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$2.25	-$3.66	58% 1153-825 (1978)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$909.37	$2.16	-$13	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$720.45	$0.59	+$0.59	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.36	$0.09	-$0.27	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.6	$0.03	-$0.57	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.01	+$0.01	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

SecondWindCapitalCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,910.76

Value

$396.92

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$469.42

Value

$269.16

PnL

-$598.07

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$882.71

Value

$136.83

PnL

-$745.89

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

DonkovCTR

Yes

Invested

$66.49

Value

$35.72

PnL

-$30.77

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.55

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$40.91

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$3.66

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$909.37

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$13

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$720.45

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.59

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.27

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.57

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,148.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

191 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.