Consensus PnL $7.8K · win rate 56% (43–34, n=77) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.8K
Record
43W / 34L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 77 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1417
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
80
Markets
98
Volume
$233.9K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $21K · now 78¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 89¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $4.8K · now 79¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 26)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $3.1K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Yes $549 · now 13¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
45 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 59¢- Soccer
+43 pts
side won 84% of 19 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +35%
- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 81% of 16 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +10%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 29% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 92% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 100% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 18)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.