Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

26 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 79¢ · $172K held · ends Nov 2

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$171.9K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 79%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

26 of 37 top traders (70%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes26 traders

Total Value$167.1K

Total Shares206,948

Combined PnL+$4.8K

No11 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares22,920

Combined PnL+$281.59

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 62% · 13

Aligned

sharpYes 82% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 30

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 74.2¢	$33.7K	$36.2K	+$2.4K	47% 474-534 (1008)
sciuboi	Yesavg 87.8¢	$26.3K	$24.3K	+$50.16	39% 201-319 (520)
Specksalam	Yesavg 86.2¢	$22.6K	$21.2K	$-1.4K	49% 43-45 (88)
MisTKy	Yesavg 73¢	$61.1K	$20.6K	+$977.4	71% 568-236 (804)
FL flawfence	Yesavg 72.6¢	$13.1K	$14.3K	+$1.2K	46% 271-319 (590)
seal7	Yesavg 79.1¢	$13.2K	$12.0K	-$503.93	49% 287-300 (587)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 69.2¢	$8.1K	$6.7K	-$577.96	50% 146-145 (291)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 81¢	$6.5K	$6.2K	-$300.01	58% 182-132 (314)
mountaindewd	Yesavg 75.3¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$370.04	54% 344-290 (634)
scout	Yesavg 68.7¢	$7.6K	$4.6K	+$1.4K	90% 762-81 (843)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 69¢	$828	$4.0K	+$331.51	72% 176-70 (246)
FB fbet	Yesavg 70¢	$1.0K	$2.8K	+$395.01	57% 21-16 (37)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR	Noavg 16.4¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$430.76	53% 3725-3239 (6964)
Zaratustra	Yesavg 69¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$142.8	62% 351-214 (565)
Warren-Buffett	Yesavg 57.7¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$170	65% 862-465 (1327)
archaic	Yesavg 86¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$74.74	85% 1906-339 (2245)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 20.7¢	$1.4K	$984.01	-$431.83	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 73.7¢	$8.8K	$964.74	+$27.86	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
MI midtermsCTR	Noavg 13¢	$520	$840	+$240	—
MA Marioy	Yesavg 87¢	$869.99	$809.99	-$5	81% 250-58 (308)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438	Yesavg 74.8¢	$796.69	$727.85	+$60.02	50% 356-357 (713)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 79.4¢	$646.69	$659.7	+$13.01	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
twinna	Yesavg 49.5¢	$281.95	$461.14	+$179.19	50% 92-93 (185)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 26.4¢	$496.61	$399.26	-$97.35	40% 174-265 (439)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 22.4¢	$5.3K	$340.06	+$406.6	53% 6689-5886 (12575)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$33,749.07

Value

$36.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

sciuboi

Yes

Invested

$26,349.98

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$50.16

Record

39%

201-319 (520)

Specksalam

Yes

Invested

$22,619.17

Value

$21.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

49%

43-45 (88)

MisTKy

Yes

Invested

$61,131.4

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$977.4

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

flawfence

Yes

Invested

$13,069.98

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

seal7

Yes

Invested

$13,222.1

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$503.93

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$8,062.65

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$577.96

Record

50%

146-145 (291)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$6,528.86

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$300.01

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

mountaindewd

Yes

Invested

$4,894.99

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$370.04

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

scout

Yes

Invested

$7,560

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

90%

762-81 (843)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$828

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$331.51

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

fbet

Yes

Invested

$1,050

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$395.01

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR

Invested

$1,632.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$430.76

Record

53%

3725-3239 (6964)

Zaratustra

Yes

Invested

$1,407.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$142.8

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

Warren-Buffett

Yes

Invested

$1,790

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$170

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

archaic

Yes

Invested

$1,437.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$74.74

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$1,415.83

Value

$984.01

PnL

-$431.83

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$8,801.67

Value

$964.74

PnL

+$27.86

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

midtermsCTR

Invested

$520

Value

$840

PnL

+$240

Record

—

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$869.99

Value

$809.99

PnL

-$5

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438

Yes

Invested

$796.69

Value

$727.85

PnL

+$60.02

Record

50%

356-357 (713)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$646.69

Value

$659.7

PnL

+$13.01

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$281.95

Value

$461.14

PnL

+$179.19

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$496.61

Value

$399.26

PnL

-$97.35

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$5,297.29

Value

$340.06

PnL

+$406.6

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 79%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

26 of 37 top traders (70%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 62% · 13

Aligned

sharpYes 82% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 30

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.