Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 88¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 87.5¢

+79% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares17,813

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares15,259

Combined PnL$-4.0K

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

643h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalek	Noavg 56¢	$6.9K	$10.5K	+$3.8K	56% 973-770 (1743)
GayPride	Noavg 33.9¢	$1.9K	$4.9K	+$3.0K	49% 357-367 (724)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 38.6¢	$2.8K	$890.86	$-1.9K	68% 331-155 (486)
SpecksalamCTR	Yesavg 81¢	$4.05	$549.19	-$826.71	49% 43-45 (88)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 60.5¢	$790.43	$163.44	-$626.99	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 60.8¢	$544.83	$126.24	-$418.59	59% 986-684 (1670)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 43.4¢	$283.91	$122.38	-$161.54	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$59.3	$80.16	+$20.87	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 52.2¢	$203	$55.46	-$147.54	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$7.45	$4.22	-$3.23	50% 357-357 (714)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$6,939.35

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

GayPride

Invested

$1,920.44

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,751.78

Value

$890.86

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

SpecksalamCTR

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$549.19

PnL

-$826.71

Record

49%

43-45 (88)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$790.43

Value

$163.44

PnL

-$626.99

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$544.83

Value

$126.24

PnL

-$418.59

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.91

Value

$122.38

PnL

-$161.54

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$59.3

Value

$80.16

PnL

+$20.87

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$203

Value

$55.46

PnL

-$147.54

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.45

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$3.23

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

643h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.