Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 78¢ · $74K held · ends Nov 2

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.5K

Combined PnL

$986.96

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 78¢

-1% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$65.2K

Total Shares80,593

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares9,865

Combined PnL-$181.09

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MisTKy	Noavg 74.5¢	$27.9K	$20.2K	+$813.26	71% 568-236 (804)
FL flawfence	Noavg 76.2¢	$10.7K	$11.1K	+$460.08	46% 271-319 (590)
LI lissartter	Noavg 86.5¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$83.16	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Noavg 82.9¢	$7.5K	$6.8K	-$155.65	53% 3725-3239 (6964)
StupidMonkeyyyARB<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$9.1K	$6.3K	+$687.03	50% 146-145 (291)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.5¢	$4.2K	$4.9K	+$1.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.7¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$592.31
AN anoin123	Noavg 76.8¢	$5.5K	$5.7K	+$192.38	47% 474-534 (1008)
Specksalam	Noavg 85¢	$5.1K	$4.8K	-$299.99	49% 43-45 (88)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 79¢	$3.9K	$2.4K	+$55	58% 182-132 (314)
BR brte	Noavg 86¢	$154.8	$1.6K	-$10	— 10-6 (16)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 72¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$115.25	40% 174-265 (439)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$173.14	61% 21342-13633 (34975)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 75.2¢	$8.9K	$1.1K	+$38.2	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
Relaccsed	Noavg 87.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$99.75	56% 1213-967 (2180)
Zaratustra	Noavg 67¢	$134	$971.18	+$14.67	62% 351-214 (565)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$264.51	$352.69	+$88.17	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
ME merod	Noavg 78¢	$334.84	$324.81	-$10.03	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
seal7	Noavg 83.6¢	$291.21	$271.13	-$20.08	49% 287-300 (587)
12 123987456	Noavg 85.7¢	$288.96	$267.94	-$21.02	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$204.03	$177.86	-$86.8	56% 973-769 (1742)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$224.28	$166.62	-$19.86	50% 356-357 (713)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 77.6¢	$88.76	$102.4	+$13.64	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$25.2	$25.4	-$1.2	50% 7969-8009 (15978)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yes	$7.73	$7.73	+$7.03	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.85	$6.6	+$3.75	78% 283-79 (362)
GG GGLPL<$100	Noavg 81¢	$2.05	$2.17	+$0.12	50% 697-693 (1390)

MisTKy

Invested

$27,897.86

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$813.26

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

flawfence

Invested

$10,669.89

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$460.08

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

lissartter

Invested

$6,949.39

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$83.16

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

YouSayUpISayDown

Invested

$7,523.05

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$155.65

Record

53%

3725-3239 (6964)

StupidMonkeyyyARB<$100

Invested

$9,117.22

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$687.03

Record

50%

146-145 (291)

Both legs:

No$4,224.8368.5¢+$1.3K

Yes$1,954.5128.7¢-$592.31

anoin123

Invested

$5,520.58

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$192.38

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Specksalam

Invested

$5,099.99

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$299.99

Record

49%

43-45 (88)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$3,949.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$55

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

brte

Invested

$154.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$10

Record

—

10-6 (16)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$1,331.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$115.25

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,462.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$173.14

Record

61%

21342-13633 (34975)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$8,895.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$38.2

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

Relaccsed

Invested

$1,112.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$99.75

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

Zaratustra

Invested

$134

Value

$971.18

PnL

+$14.67

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$264.51

Value

$352.69

PnL

+$88.17

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

merod

Invested

$334.84

Value

$324.81

PnL

-$10.03

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

seal7

Invested

$291.21

Value

$271.13

PnL

-$20.08

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

123987456

Invested

$288.96

Value

$267.94

PnL

-$21.02

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$204.03

Value

$177.86

PnL

-$86.8

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR

Yes

Invested

$224.28

Value

$166.62

PnL

-$19.86

Record

50%

356-357 (713)

ghorrock

Invested

$88.76

Value

$102.4

PnL

+$13.64

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.4

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.73

Value

$7.73

PnL

+$7.03

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$3.75

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

GGLPL<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.7%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.