Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 47¢ · $9K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$220.35

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 47¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares11,760

Combined PnL-$362.24

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,893

Combined PnL+$141.88

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA salahmhCTR	Noavg 50.7¢	$5.6K	$4.9K	-$406.24	43% 323-428 (751)
TO Tobias1909	Yesavg 54.4¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	+$66.36	57% 395-298 (693)
TimeTravelerCTR	Noavg 41.5¢	$332	$360	+$44	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704	Yesavg 50¢	$230.64	$244.46	+$13.82	60% 1348-884 (2232)
probability	Yesavg 48.5¢	$177.8	$211.49	+$32.35	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$12.89	$41.59	+$27.33	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LE leegunner<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$14.22	$16.21	+$1.99	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
RI Richidd<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$1	$1.04	+$0.04	46% 47-56 (103)

salahmhCTR

Invested

$5,557.54

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$406.24

Record

43%

323-428 (751)

Tobias1909

Yes

Invested

$3,220.34

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$66.36

Record

57%

395-298 (693)

TimeTravelerCTR

Invested

$332

Value

$360

PnL

+$44

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704

Yes

Invested

$230.64

Value

$244.46

PnL

+$13.82

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

probability

Yes

Invested

$177.8

Value

$211.49

PnL

+$32.35

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.89

Value

$41.59

PnL

+$27.33

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

leegunner<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.22

Value

$16.21

PnL

+$1.99

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Richidd<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.