Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$750.15

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,603

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$84.8

Total Shares21,201

Combined PnL$-2.0K

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

88 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 87¢	$8.4K	$9.6K	+$1.2K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 12.8¢	$910.76	$29.32	-$881.44	71% 318-130 (448)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 11.1¢	$690.31	$21.13	-$600.28	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$15.14	$14.03	-$1.05	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$121.21	$5.92	-$115.29	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TO Tobias1909CTR	Yesavg 16¢	$191.7	$4.79	-$186.91	57% 395-298 (693)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$172.12	$4.68	-$152.13	60% 1348-884 (2232)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$3.96	$3.95	-$0.01	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
ME melganisCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$24	$0.8	-$23.2	75% 1597-541 (2138)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$3.56	$0.19	+$0.19	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

Nooserac

Invested

$8,354.54

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$910.76

Value

$29.32

PnL

-$881.44

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$690.31

Value

$21.13

PnL

-$600.28

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.14

Value

$14.03

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.21

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$115.29

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Tobias1909CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.7

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$186.91

Record

57%

395-298 (693)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$172.12

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$152.13

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

melganisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$23.2

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

88 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.