Will PP win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 30

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$255.17

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 92¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,615

Combined PnL+$327.21

No5 traders

Total Value$75.6

Total Shares945

Combined PnL-$72.04

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

259h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 83.8¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	+$338.44	— 7-5 (12)
Istaroth	Yesavg 85.8¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$37.96	17% 402-1972 (2374)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100	Yesavg 60.1¢	$39.01	$59.74	+$20.73	51% 528-511 (1039)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$54.15	$28.88	-$25.27	24% 666-2084 (2750)
vinii<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.4	$18.8	+$6	73% 2835-1046 (3881)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$29.44	$14.72	-$14.72	31% 1408-3193 (4601)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$24.31	$11.44	-$12.87	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$22.44	$10.56	-$11.88	17% 221-1066 (1287)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$17.3	$10	-$7.3	50% 7813-7864 (15677)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$3,351.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$338.44

Record

—

7-5 (12)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$2,081.25

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$37.96

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

GenaTheBondKilIer<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.01

Value

$59.74

PnL

+$20.73

Record

51%

528-511 (1039)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$54.15

Value

$28.88

PnL

-$25.27

Record

24%

666-2084 (2750)

vinii<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$6

Record

73%

2835-1046 (3881)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$29.44

Value

$14.72

PnL

-$14.72

Record

31%

1408-3193 (4601)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$24.31

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$12.87

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$22.44

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$11.88

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$10

PnL

-$7.3

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

259h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.