Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 70¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 28

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$4.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 69.5¢

+35% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares24,655

Combined PnL+$4.5K

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,916

Combined PnL-$452.57

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

301h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 56.8¢	$5.2K	$6.4K	+$1.2K	38% 20-32 (52)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Yesavg 57.6¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$781.89	64% 85-47 (132)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Yesavg 44.3¢	$2.1K	$3.3K	+$1.2K	73% 350-129 (479)
siick	Yesavg 32.4¢	$809.76	$1.7K	+$924.65	57% 767-580 (1347)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 27.8¢	$261.6	$659.41	+$393.11	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$840.93	$594.17	-$246.76	50% 146-145 (291)
LI linethCTR	Noavg 40.5¢	$575.58	$397.68	-$142.39	41% 245-350 (595)
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 71.1¢	$396.61	$387.71	-$8.9	57% 1113-837 (1950)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 60.7¢	$90.45	$93.8	+$3.35	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 55.5¢	$50.45	$63.11	+$12.67	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 64¢	$128	$56	-$67	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$44.96	$48.53	+$3.58	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
CA cashy<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$16.2	$17.72	+$1.39	71% 611-250 (861)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$5,196.5

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Yes

Invested

$3,770

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$781.89

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

M2sx92kljs42

Yes

Invested

$2,100

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

siick

Yes

Invested

$809.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$924.65

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$261.6

Value

$659.41

PnL

+$393.11

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR

Invested

$840.93

Value

$594.17

PnL

-$246.76

Record

50%

146-145 (291)

linethCTR

Invested

$575.58

Value

$397.68

PnL

-$142.39

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$396.61

Value

$387.71

PnL

-$8.9

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.45

Value

$93.8

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.45

Value

$63.11

PnL

+$12.67

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$128

Value

$56

PnL

-$67

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$44.96

Value

$48.53

PnL

+$3.58

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

cashy<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$1.39

Record

71%

611-250 (861)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

301h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.