Consensus PnL -$122K · win rate 42% (458–645, n=1103) · PM monthly #654 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-122.0K
Record
458W / 645L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 1103 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2063
Source
PM monthly #654
Trades
950
Markets
1,246
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 23¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $1.3K · now 6¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $101 · now 54¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will LYON win Worlds 2026?Yes $70 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
655 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 57¢- Esports
+11 pts
side won 72% of 337 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +17%
- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 60% of 190 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +10%
- MMA
+16 pts
side won 63% of 16 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +29%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 50% of 32 at an average 55¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 21% of 117)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 58% of 120)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 72% of 195)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 90% of 223)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.