Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 10 of 35 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?

10 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$142.7

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 0.6¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 35 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No25 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,509

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$726.58

Total Shares3,583

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (33 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 33

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Noavg 61.1¢	$370.61	$604.79	+$234.18	71% 902-377 (1279)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 71.9¢	$1.0K	$602.5	+$80.99	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 1.1¢	$9.74	$585.62	+$720.73	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
GO god83743894	Noavg 17.6¢	$66.73	$258.38	+$234.91	46% 10307-11997 (22304)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 25.1¢	$49.1	$118.09	+$94.42	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 16¢	$18.79	$116.87	+$98.07	52% 6272-5822 (12094)
balthazar	Noavg 46.2¢	$49.63	$106.82	+$57.19	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 26¢	$24.99	$95.63	+$63.34	58% 6498-4657 (11155)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$9.75	$84.58	+$74.83	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$169.07	$80.97	-$65.04	51% 257-247 (504)
probability<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$72.33	$72.14	-$0.19	42% 1516-2129 (3645)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$37.32	$51.75	+$27.53	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 17.1¢	$7.87	$45.7	+$37.83	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 27.2¢	$11.29	$40.84	+$29.55	28% 479-1254 (1733)
Crypto-Joe<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$36.61	$39.8	+$3.19	— 8-2 (10)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 25.7¢	$10.05	$38.9	+$28.86	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 78.8¢	$35.35	$34.93	-$0.09	14% 461-2750 (3211)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$33.29	$34.83	+$1.61	56% 18290-14209 (32499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 31.8¢	$155.4	$30.92	+$21.05	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$37.85	$30.17	+$13.86	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
AN anoin123<$100	Noavg 24¢	$6.32	$26.18	+$19.87	45% 512-628 (1140)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$23.78	$24.88	+$0.68	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$21.25	$22.48	+$9.33	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 17¢	$3.56	$20.86	+$17.3	39% 992-1548 (2540)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$12.99	$18.15	+$5.15	55% 4408-3603 (8011)

mrworldwide

Invested

$370.61

Value

$604.79

PnL

+$234.18

Record

71%

902-377 (1279)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,024.35

Value

$602.5

PnL

+$80.99

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$9.74

Value

$585.62

PnL

+$720.73

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

god83743894

Invested

$66.73

Value

$258.38

PnL

+$234.91

Record

46%

10307-11997 (22304)

e46m3

Invested

$49.1

Value

$118.09

PnL

+$94.42

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$18.79

Value

$116.87

PnL

+$98.07

Record

52%

6272-5822 (12094)

balthazar

Invested

$49.63

Value

$106.82

PnL

+$57.19

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

$95.63

PnL

+$63.34

Record

58%

6498-4657 (11155)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

$84.58

PnL

+$74.83

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.07

Value

$80.97

PnL

-$65.04

Record

51%

257-247 (504)

probability<$100

Invested

$72.33

Value

$72.14

PnL

-$0.19

Record

42%

1516-2129 (3645)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$37.32

Value

$51.75

PnL

+$27.53

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$7.87

Value

$45.7

PnL

+$37.83

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$40.84

PnL

+$29.55

Record

28%

479-1254 (1733)

Crypto-Joe<$100

Invested

$36.61

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$3.19

Record

—

8-2 (10)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$38.9

PnL

+$28.86

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.35

Value

$34.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$33.29

Value

$34.83

PnL

+$1.61

Record

56%

18290-14209 (32499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$155.4

Value

$30.92

PnL

+$21.05

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$37.85

Value

$30.17

PnL

+$13.86

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

anoin123<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$19.87

Record

45%

512-628 (1140)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.78

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

$22.48

PnL

+$9.33

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$20.86

PnL

+$17.3

Record

39%

992-1548 (2540)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$12.99

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$5.15

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 35 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (33 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 33

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5913.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

6013.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.