Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Oxford United FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 2.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 50¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 4

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

-$470.44

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 49.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares34,945

Combined PnL-$467.64

Under2 traders

Total Value$119.4

Total Shares241

Combined PnL-$2.8

Over — 83%Under — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$8.1K	$7.9K	-$193.55	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$222.19	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$14.15	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$978.39	$973.62	-$4.77	74% 2421-862 (3283)
DV dv-pmCTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$997.44	$964.05	-$33.4	49% 3293-3423 (6716)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$695.29	$672.58	-$22.72	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$324.32	$336.94	+$12.62	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$212.09	$220.75	+$8.66	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$202	+$2	51% 1790-1709 (3499)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Underavg 51.6¢	$107.61	$103.27	-$4.34	58% 6498-4657 (11155)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$29.25	$29.11	-$0.14	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$14.59	$16.13	+$1.54	52% 1146-1041 (2187)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$8,093.45

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$193.55

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$5,445.08

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$222.19

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,417.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.15

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Over

Invested

$978.39

Value

$973.62

PnL

-$4.77

Record

74%

2421-862 (3283)

dv-pmCTR

Over

Invested

$997.44

Value

$964.05

PnL

-$33.4

Record

49%

3293-3423 (6716)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$695.29

Value

$672.58

PnL

-$22.72

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$324.32

Value

$336.94

PnL

+$12.62

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$212.09

Value

$220.75

PnL

+$8.66

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$202

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1790-1709 (3499)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Under

Invested

$107.61

Value

$103.27

PnL

-$4.34

Record

58%

6498-4657 (11155)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.25

Value

$29.11

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$14.59

Value

$16.13

PnL

+$1.54

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.