Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $46K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$46.2K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 97.2¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$46.2K

Total Shares47,541

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$45.38

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL-$799.54

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM amis	Noavg 86.2¢	$27.7K	$31.2K	+$3.5K	88% 249-34 (283)
PH phdcapital	Noavg 82.1¢	$4.1K	$4.9K	+$752.5	94% 259-17 (276)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 90.6¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$258.65	85% 605-108 (713)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87.8¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$220.35	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 92.1¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$96.2	89% 563-67 (630)
OE oegdatam	Noavg 94.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$50.62	87% 149-22 (171)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 93.3¢	$395.84	$394.48	-$1.36	66% 1107-565 (1672)
SH Sharky6999CTR	Yesavg 65.6¢	$581.96	$25.5	-$556.46	98% 6914-167 (7081)
BabyIBeenWatchingYouCTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$262.96	$19.88	-$243.08	65% 966-523 (1489)

amis

Invested

$27,695.31

Value

$31.2K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

88%

249-34 (283)

phdcapital

Invested

$4,104.98

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$752.5

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$3,568.77

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$258.65

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,081.72

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$220.35

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$1,754.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$96.2

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

oegdatam

Invested

$1,799.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$50.62

Record

87%

149-22 (171)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$395.84

Value

$394.48

PnL

-$1.36

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Sharky6999CTR

Yes

Invested

$581.96

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$556.46

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

BabyIBeenWatchingYouCTR

Yes

Invested

$262.96

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$243.08

Record

65%

966-523 (1489)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.