Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $68K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$68.2K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 98.6¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$67.3K

Total Shares68,332

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$918.81

Total Shares63,366

Combined PnL-$283.84

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 97.9¢	$32.0K	$32.2K	+$169.91	85% 605-108 (713)
AM amis	Noavg 90.6¢	$19.1K	$20.6K	+$1.6K	88% 249-34 (283)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 98.1¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$19.67	54% 785-659 (1444)
justdance	Noavg 94.3¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$10.64	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$64.12	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
TR tryingout1	Noavg 86.6¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$179.25	80% 85-21 (106)
timebrotime	Noavg 91.3¢	$623.52	$667.94	+$44.41	67% 893-435 (1328)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$500.33	$432.84	-$67.45	65% 862-465 (1327)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$328.09	$432.51	+$104.41	62% 795-490 (1285)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$358.4	$47.24	-$311.16	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$15.86	$6.22	-$9.65	54% 229-195 (424)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$32,032.81

Value

$32.2K

PnL

+$169.91

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

amis

Invested

$19,083.31

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

88%

249-34 (283)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$6,437.41

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$19.67

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

justdance

Invested

$3,672.69

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$10.64

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,136.05

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$64.12

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

tryingout1

Invested

$1,298.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$179.25

Record

80%

85-21 (106)

timebrotime

Invested

$623.52

Value

$667.94

PnL

+$44.41

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$500.33

Value

$432.84

PnL

-$67.45

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$328.09

Value

$432.51

PnL

+$104.41

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

Albert 1953CTR

Yes

Invested

$358.4

Value

$47.24

PnL

-$311.16

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.86

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$9.65

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.