Consensus PnL -$727K · win rate 72% (136–54, n=190) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-727.1K
Record
136W / 54L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 190 settled
Batting Avg
49.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#667
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
29,050
Markets
1,466
Volume
$8.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $6.9K · now 94¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $1.2K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (92% of 51)
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No $274 · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 25)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No $259 · now 88¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
Specialties
1,042 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 92¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 95% of 202 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 93% of 326 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 98% of 50 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 13% of 53)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 63% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 77% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 100% of 951)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.