U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$5.4K
-$266.05
66.9¢ → 88¢
+32% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR Krass | Noavg 68.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$322.46 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 randomWalkingShrimp | Noavg 65.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$362.66 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 64.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$373.18 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $1.8K | $522.38 | $-1.3K | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 bamesjond | Noavg 71.2¢ | $209.51 | $259.07 | +$49.56 | 80% 1055-259 (1314) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $332.05 | $200.08 | -$131.97 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
LI lineth | Noavg 75.8¢ | $90.55 | $105.16 | +$14.62 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $67.38 | $74.12 | +$6.74 | 68% 1674-770 (2444) |
 wish-CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $15.78 | $6.11 | -$9.67 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $5 | $2.4 | -$2.6 | 51% 527-509 (1036) |
Invested
$1,183.85
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$322.46
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
randomWalkingShrimpInvested
$1,049.89
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$362.66
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$1,012.12
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$373.18
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
aenews2CTRInvested
$1,773.4
Value
$522.38
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
bamesjondInvested
$209.51
Value
$259.07
PnL
+$49.56
Record
80%
1055-259 (1314)
CarCTRInvested
$332.05
Value
$200.08
PnL
-$131.97
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$90.55
Value
$105.16
PnL
+$14.62
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$67.38
Value
$74.12
PnL
+$6.74
Record
68%
1674-770 (2444)
wish-CTR<$100Invested
$15.78
Value
$6.11
PnL
-$9.67
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$2.6
Record
51%
527-509 (1036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.