Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

19 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 96¢ · $60K held · ends Dec 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.2K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 96.2¢

+8% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$59.8K

Total Shares62,176

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$249.76

Total Shares6,573

Combined PnL-$194.38

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 15

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 78% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
allenzzz	Noavg 89.3¢	$32.6K	$35.1K	+$2.5K	78% 125-36 (161)
elmcap2	Noavg 91.7¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$362.7	89% 1665-205 (1870)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 84.6¢	$6.3K	$7.1K	+$855.73	88% 2229-292 (2521)
BE BENFICAA	Noavg 91¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$256.04	77% 54-16 (70)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 94.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$22.63	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
bosshog	Noavg 84.9¢	$848.57	$962.01	+$113.43	72% 1052-415 (1467)
scottilicious	Noavg 80¢	$689.58	$829.22	+$139.64	82% 945-201 (1146)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 79.8¢	$408.18	$449.26	+$41.09	66% 1107-565 (1672)
bamesjond	Noavg 90¢	$256.41	$274.07	+$17.66	80% 1055-259 (1314)
4751346	Noavg 82.3¢	$227.31	$245.27	+$17.96	72% 1257-483 (1740)
IN insidero	Noavg 91¢	$227.85	$240.87	+$13.01	76% 291-93 (384)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$279.29	$126.69	-$152.6	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 13.4¢	$212.08	$120.79	-$91.29	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.4¢	$75.64	$80.47	+$2.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.4¢	$142.56	$40.32	-$93.97
JE Jest55	Noavg 82.6¢	$103.84	$115.48	+$11.65	75% 1028-338 (1366)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$117.02	$101.16	-$15.86	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 76¢	$38	$93.68	+$14.69	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
wish-<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$47.65	$48.1	+$0.45	79% 1176-319 (1495)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.5	$48.1	+$5.6	75% 1597-541 (2138)
Talophex<$100	Noavg 93¢	$36.74	$38.01	+$1.26	91% 929-95 (1024)
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251<$100	Noavg 94¢	$30	$30.7	+$0.7	89% 538-64 (602)
Kickstand7<$100	Noavg 80¢	$18.4	$22.13	+$3.73	61% 496-318 (814)
Trading4FridgeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$32.45	$15.41	-$17.04	58% 928-661 (1589)
classified<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.1	$9.62	+$1.52	58% 844-614 (1458)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$14.38	$5.46	-$8.91	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
ED Ed2357CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1	$1.03	+$0.03	— 0-3 (3)

allenzzz

Invested

$32,585.53

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

elmcap2

Invested

$7,333.44

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$362.7

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$6,344.38

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$855.73

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

BENFICAA

Invested

$4,550

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$256.04

Record

77%

54-16 (70)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,684.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$22.63

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

bosshog

Invested

$848.57

Value

$962.01

PnL

+$113.43

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

scottilicious

Invested

$689.58

Value

$829.22

PnL

+$139.64

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$408.18

Value

$449.26

PnL

+$41.09

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

bamesjond

Invested

$256.41

Value

$274.07

PnL

+$17.66

Record

80%

1055-259 (1314)

4751346

Invested

$227.31

Value

$245.27

PnL

+$17.96

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

insidero

Invested

$227.85

Value

$240.87

PnL

+$13.01

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$279.29

Value

$126.69

PnL

-$152.6

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$212.08

Value

$120.79

PnL

-$91.29

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$75.6490.4¢+$2.68

Yes$142.5613.4¢-$93.97

Jest55

Invested

$103.84

Value

$115.48

PnL

+$11.65

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.02

Value

$101.16

PnL

-$15.86

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$93.68

PnL

+$14.69

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

wish-<$100

Invested

$47.65

Value

$48.1

PnL

+$0.45

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

melganis<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$48.1

PnL

+$5.6

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Talophex<$100

Invested

$36.74

Value

$38.01

PnL

+$1.26

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$30.7

PnL

+$0.7

Record

89%

538-64 (602)

Kickstand7<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$22.13

PnL

+$3.73

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

Trading4FridgeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.45

Value

$15.41

PnL

-$17.04

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

classified<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$1.52

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.38

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$8.91

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Ed2357CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 15

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 78% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.