Consensus PnL $83K · win rate 75% (101–33, n=134) · was PM monthly #928 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$83.3K
Record
101W / 33L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 134 settled
Batting Avg
32.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#581
Source
PM monthly #928
Trades
324
Markets
176
Volume
$8.1M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 6 on the consensus side (0%)- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $37K · now 28¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $23K · now 6¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $14K · now 28¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes $9.2K · now 5¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 33¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $121 · now 6¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
120 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 80¢- Esports
+36 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 85% of 68 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 22% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 88% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 82% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 77%(won 99% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.