Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

30 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 68¢ · $303K held · ends Nov 4

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 52%

Total Value

$303.0K

Combined PnL

$751.05

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 58 top traders (52%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No30 traders

Total Value$257.3K

Total Shares382,984

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes28 traders

Total Value$45.7K

Total Shares142,732

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4870h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 54% · 24

Aligned

sharpNo 54% · 13

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 22

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 44

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Noavg 69¢	$33.1K	$96.1K	$-1.3K	71% 60-24 (84)
SL SlavaUkraini	Noavg 72¢	$43.5K	$40.8K	$-2.7K	71% 160-66 (226)
WordleAddict	Noavg 63.3¢	$27.9K	$29.5K	+$1.9K	61% 941-614 (1555)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 64.8¢	$15.2K	$15.8K	+$631.44	38% 20-32 (52)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 68¢	$13.6K	$13.5K	-$99.67	53% 915-808 (1723)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 61.3¢	$10.8K	$11.9K	+$1.1K	61% 203-132 (335)
ScottyNooo	Noavg 62.9¢	$11.0K	$11.0K	+$757.82	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 33.7¢	$8.1K	$8.0K	-$89.38	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$7.2K	$7.6K	+$328.63	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$7.9K	$6.8K	-$926.31	67% 751-378 (1129)
twinna	Noavg 61¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$454.55	50% 92-93 (185)
seal7	Noavg 56¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$786.2	49% 287-300 (587)
ET ethBELIVER	Noavg 72¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$270	39% 24-37 (61)
BR brte	Noavg 68¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$29.99	— 10-6 (16)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$227.52	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
ME Melody626CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$50.71	58% 705-521 (1226)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$132.96	54% 325-279 (604)
Jellow2	Noavg 62.5¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$217.23	64% 299-169 (468)
IC ic4creamCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$361.22	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
HorribleWorkCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$0.13	60% 465-309 (774)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 65.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$40.71	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
RE rebotsliaf	Noavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$283.31	25% 185-564 (749)
mountaindewd	Noavg 65¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$75	54% 344-290 (634)
EA Eatpraylove	Noavg 61.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$255	57% 766-585 (1351)
mrworldwide	Noavg 62.6¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$147.02	69% 804-359 (1163)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Invested

$33,055.9

Value

$96.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

SlavaUkraini

Invested

$43,541.36

Value

$40.8K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

WordleAddict

Invested

$27,909.88

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$15,175.02

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$631.44

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$13,599.66

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$99.67

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$10,843.92

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ScottyNooo

Invested

$10,984.51

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$757.82

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,108.63

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$89.38

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,236.89

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$328.63

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$7,874.71

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$926.31

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

twinna

Invested

$4,265.75

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$454.55

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

seal7

Invested

$3,828.47

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$786.2

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

ethBELIVER

Invested

$4,320

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$270

Record

39%

24-37 (61)

brte

Invested

$4,079.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$29.99

Record

—

10-6 (16)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,074.88

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$227.52

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Melody626CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,244.59

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$50.71

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,148.07

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$132.96

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

Jellow2

Invested

$2,689.36

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$217.23

Record

64%

299-169 (468)

ic4creamCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,969.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$361.22

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

HorribleWorkCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,618.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$0.13

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$2,368.79

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$40.71

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

rebotsliaf

Invested

$1,966.47

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$283.31

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

mountaindewd

Invested

$1,950

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

Eatpraylove

Invested

$1,755

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$255

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

mrworldwide

Invested

$1,877.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$147.02

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 58 top traders (52%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4870h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 54% · 24

Aligned

sharpNo 54% · 13

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 22

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 44

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.