Consensus PnL $177K · win rate 98% (55–1, n=56) · was PM monthly #990 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$176.6K
Record
55W / 1L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 56 settled
Batting Avg
75.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#109
Source
PM monthly #990 + pinned
Trades
2,798
Markets
109
Volume
$4.9M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $764K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $104K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes $23K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.8K · now 93¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (71% of 31)
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $278 · now 2¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
104 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 93¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 100% of 30 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 100% of 31 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 98% of 102)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.