Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 56¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 4

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

-$465.26

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 56.5¢

-6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares28,148

Combined PnL-$852.93

No6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares9,304

Combined PnL+$387.67

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

172h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (18 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626	Yesavg 57.4¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$103.33	58% 705-521 (1226)
FL flawfence	Yesavg 64¢	$4.4K	$3.9K	-$484.35	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Noavg 34.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$286	79% 332-89 (421)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$60	58% 182-132 (314)
FB fbet	Yesavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$30	57% 21-16 (37)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 39.8¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	+$4.49	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
BR brte	Yesavg 61¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$63.42	— 10-6 (16)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 61.9¢	$962.65	$879.51	-$73.55	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 40.6¢	$863.87	$859.31	-$4.55	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 70.3¢	$575.4	$570	-$5.4	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
ChungvicularCTR	Noavg 34¢	$339.99	$429.99	+$90	46% 49-57 (106)
Zaratustra	Yesavg 56¢	$392	$399	+$10.5	62% 351-214 (565)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 61.9¢	$117.32	$108	-$9.32	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
aenews2CTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$79.84	$91.5	+$11.66	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 80.1¢	$68.1	$48.45	-$19.22	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
IM immanuelcan<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$49.2	$34.2	-$14.7	53% 906-789 (1695)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$15.58	$15.44	-$0.14	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$2.3	$2.39	+$0.08	40% 174-265 (439)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$6,777.13

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$103.33

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

flawfence

Yes

Invested

$4,428.34

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$484.35

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Invested

$1,195.92

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$286

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$60

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

fbet

Yes

Invested

$1,180

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$1,745.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.49

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

brte

Yes

Invested

$1,105.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$63.42

Record

—

10-6 (16)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$962.65

Value

$879.51

PnL

-$73.55

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$863.87

Value

$859.31

PnL

-$4.55

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$575.4

Value

$570

PnL

-$5.4

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

ChungvicularCTR

Invested

$339.99

Value

$429.99

PnL

+$90

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Zaratustra

Yes

Invested

$392

Value

$399

PnL

+$10.5

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$117.32

Value

$108

PnL

-$9.32

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

aenews2CTR<$100

Invested

$79.84

Value

$91.5

PnL

+$11.66

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.1

Value

$48.45

PnL

-$19.22

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

immanuelcan<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.2

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$14.7

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.58

Value

$15.44

PnL

-$0.14

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.08

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

172h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (18 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.5%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.