Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 51¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 27
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
16
Yes 88%
$13.1K
$1.4K
45.5¢ → 51¢
+12% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 51%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
14 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Late
709h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE defillama7 | Yesavg 40¢ | $3.1K | $3.9K | +$845.8 | 60% 32-21 (53) |
DE denizz | Yesavg 60¢ | $4.1K | $3.5K | -$592.68 | 68% 597-284 (881) |
 mountaindewd | Yesavg 33¢ | $759 | $1.2K | +$414 | 54% 344-290 (634) |
FL flawfence | Yesavg 31¢ | $618.78 | $1.0K | +$399.32 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
MI MissaoComFlavioCTR | Noavg 49.1¢ | $775.62 | $765.97 | -$9.65 | 75% 233-77 (310) |
 kekkone | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $672.61 | $599.06 | -$73.54 | 73% 1124-417 (1541) |
 BiDiFakePolls | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $515.98 | $565.06 | +$49.09 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
CA cashy | Yesavg 34¢ | $323.13 | $484.7 | +$161.57 | 71% 611-250 (861) |
FB fbet | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $181.45 | $261.81 | +$93.29 | 57% 21-16 (37) |
 seal7 | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $141.02 | $196.34 | +$55.32 | 49% 287-300 (587) |
 cambridgeisaac | Yesavg 56¢ | $211.4 | $192.41 | -$18.99 | 57% 1113-837 (1950) |
WA wan123 | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $65.71 | $138.04 | +$72.33 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 60¢ | $119.99 | $102 | -$18 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
 Cungly<$100 | Yesavg 63.3¢ | $89.89 | $72.41 | -$17.48 | 63% 672-397 (1069) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $69.63 | $63.03 | -$6.6 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Noavg 42.3¢ | $26.6 | $27.73 | +$1.13 | 50% 356-357 (713) |
Invested
$3,073.31
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$845.8
Record
60%
32-21 (53)
Invested
$4,115.34
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$592.68
Record
68%
597-284 (881)
mountaindewdInvested
$759
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$414
Record
54%
344-290 (634)
Invested
$618.78
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$399.32
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$775.62
Value
$765.97
PnL
-$9.65
Record
75%
233-77 (310)
kekkoneInvested
$672.61
Value
$599.06
PnL
-$73.54
Record
73%
1124-417 (1541)
BiDiFakePollsInvested
$515.98
Value
$565.06
PnL
+$49.09
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
Invested
$323.13
Value
$484.7
PnL
+$161.57
Record
71%
611-250 (861)
Invested
$181.45
Value
$261.81
PnL
+$93.29
Record
57%
21-16 (37)
seal7Invested
$141.02
Value
$196.34
PnL
+$55.32
Record
49%
287-300 (587)
cambridgeisaacInvested
$211.4
Value
$192.41
PnL
-$18.99
Record
57%
1113-837 (1950)
Invested
$65.71
Value
$138.04
PnL
+$72.33
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$119.99
Value
$102
PnL
-$18
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
Cungly<$100Invested
$89.89
Value
$72.41
PnL
-$17.48
Record
63%
672-397 (1069)
Invested
$69.63
Value
$63.03
PnL
-$6.6
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$26.6
Value
$27.73
PnL
+$1.13
Record
50%
356-357 (713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.