cocos228

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $84K · now 84¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $52K · now 73¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $38K · now 96¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $29K · now 16¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $21K · now 72¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
• Iran leadership change by December 31?No $20K · now 87¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $16K · now 86¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $12K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)

• Geopolitics

  +6 pts

  side won 89% of 64 · avg entry 83¢

  ROI +4%

• Elections

  +5 pts

  side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 80¢

  ROI +15%

Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.