Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankCornerGamingndb1primm
Record (consensus markets)45% (573–710, n=1283)38% (8–13, n=21)63% (989–572, n=1561)50% (1105–1117, n=2222)
Consensus PnL$7.9M-$28K$3.2M$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #3was PM monthly #611PM monthly #104PM monthly #46
Sides with the consensus78% (25 of 32 open)no open consensus position69% (61 of 88 open)100% (3 of 3 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——NFL −9 pts, n=139—
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 4 at avg 48¢, ROI +45%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%99% of 1013 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)0%13% (won 15% of 168)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)25% (won 100% of 1)20% (won 39% of 256)41% (won 99% of 412)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)75% (won 100% of 3)24% (won 58% of 314)50% (won 99% of 503)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)0%43% (won 93% of 550)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankCornerGamingndb1primm
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1—Yes $1.0M—
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $407K—No $335K—