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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| FortunatelyFestive | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 85% (97–17, n=114) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $34K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 86% (6 of 7 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) | 55% (6 of 11 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | Politics −7 pts, n=26 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 105 at avg 89¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 0% of 4) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 100% of 1) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 94% (won 92% of 99) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | FortunatelyFestive | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $188K | Commanders $3.8K | — |