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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HD45 | 00gringo00 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (14–2, n=16) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 47% (13849–15328, n=29177) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | -$4.1K | $3.5M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #829 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 33% (2 of 6 open) | no open consensus position | 50% (2 of 4 open) | 89% (143 of 160 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 11 at avg 64¢, ROI −5% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 67% of 3) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 100% of 1) | 0% | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 0% of 1) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 55% (won 100% of 6) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HD45 | 00gringo00 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.2K | — | — | No $292K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $3.4K | — | — | No $117K |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $6.0K | — | — | Yes $85K |