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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | ndb1 | smoltrader | Wiretransferxyz | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 97% (585–18, n=603) | 58% (419–300, n=719) | no settled market | 59% (363–253, n=616) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.3M | $4.7M | — | $883K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #8 | PM monthly #157 | was PM monthly #368 | PM monthly #227 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (47 of 66 open) | 70% (57 of 81 open) | 100% (15 of 15 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| not computed yet |
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| Weakest topic | — | NFL −8 pts, n=71 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 149 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% | 54% of 496 at avg 57¢, ROI +1% | — | 59% of 495 at avg 53¢, ROI +8% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 100% of 3) | 19% (won 10% of 96) | — | 6% (won 17% of 29) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 43% (won 100% of 64) | 21% (won 35% of 105) | — | 35% (won 46% of 171) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 42% (won 100% of 62) | 27% (won 54% of 132) | — | 47% (won 66% of 233) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 13% (won 100% of 20) | 33% (won 91% of 163) | — | 13% (won 89% of 62) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.