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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Hourglass | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (7763–1818, n=9581) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) | 50% (992–980, n=1972) |
| Consensus PnL | $136K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #957 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (71 of 95 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (52 of 61 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Golf −1 pts, n=66 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 11836 at avg 86¢, ROI 0% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 5% of 939) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 37% of 353) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 63% of 524) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 85% (won 97% of 10020) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Hourglass | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $14 | — | Yes $20K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $49 | — | Yes $170K | — |