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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Istaroth | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (79–171, n=250) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | -$706K | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (74 of 100 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −4 pts, n=76 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 287 at avg 77¢, ROI −4% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 51) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 54% of 13) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 95% of 217) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Istaroth | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus No | Yes $10 | Yes $41 | — |