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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
JustADonkBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)56% (877–689, n=1566)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$8.0K$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #428PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus60% (6 of 10 open)72% (79 of 110 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicNFL −7 pts, n=100—
Settled positions, side won56% of 1581 at avg 57¢, ROI 0%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 17% of 175)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢19% (won 39% of 299)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢45% (won 58% of 717)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up25% (won 83% of 390)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketJustADonkBreakTheBank
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Cowboys $3.4KCardinals $59K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Cowboys $1.7KCardinals $3.0K
Raiders vs. Jets
same side · consensus Raiders
Raiders $3.6KRaiders $171K