Cardinals vs. Cowboys

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (38%) · Cowboys at 76¢ · $197K held · ends Nov 1

Cardinals25¢Cowboys75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 38%

Total Value

$196.8K

Combined PnL

-$508.45

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cardinals25%

Cowboys76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$132.3K

Total Shares175,295

Combined PnL+$880.19

Cardinals8 traders

Total Value$64.6K

Total Shares263,411

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Cowboys — 38%Cardinals — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI milkteaboba	Cowboysavg 75¢	$127.4K	$128.2K	+$849.02	69% 38-17 (55)
EdZacharyCTR	Cardinalsavg 25¢	$50.0K	$49.0K	-$1,000	40% 94-142 (236)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Cardinalsavg 25¢	$8.8K	$8.6K	-$176.14	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
AN Anon455CTR	Cardinalsavg 25¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$100	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Cowboysavg 73¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$41.09	57% 261-193 (454)
ComingBack	Cowboysavg 75¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$13.33	61% 3965-2495 (6460)
NE neymar1CTR	Cardinalsavg 25¢	$583.25	$571.59	-$11.66	30% 324-771 (1095)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cardinalsavg 26.8¢	$1.7K	$533.12	-$82.61	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
LI lissartterCTR	Cardinalsavg 25¢	$500	$490	-$10	42% 5284-7235 (12519)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Cardinalsavg 26¢	$234.63	$230.12	-$4.51	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR	Cardinalsavg 26¢	$192.59	$188.89	-$3.7	51% 144-139 (283)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Cowboysavg 70¢	$49	$51.8	+$3.15	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Cowboysavg 74¢	$12.73	$12.99	+$0.26	53% 2250-1980 (4230)

milkteaboba

Cowboys

Invested

$127,352.8

Value

$128.2K

PnL

+$849.02

Record

69%

38-17 (55)

EdZacharyCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$49,999.98

Value

$49.0K

PnL

-$1,000

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$8,814.47

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$176.14

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

Anon455CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

MAGATheeStallion

Cowboys

Invested

$1,999.47

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$41.09

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

ComingBack

Cowboys

Invested

$1,999

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$13.33

Record

61%

3965-2495 (6460)

neymar1CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$583.25

Value

$571.59

PnL

-$11.66

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,742.41

Value

$533.12

PnL

-$82.61

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

lissartterCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$10

Record

42%

5284-7235 (12519)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$234.63

Value

$230.12

PnL

-$4.51

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$192.59

Value

$188.89

PnL

-$3.7

Record

51%

144-139 (283)

BoomLaLa<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$49

Value

$51.8

PnL

+$3.15

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$12.73

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.