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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| NotJump | surfandturf | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (2519–5260, n=7779) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) |
| Consensus PnL | $424K | $4.1M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #963 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 43% (6 of 14 open) | 0% (0 of 2 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | MLB −31 pts, n=51 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 34% of 4267 at avg 45¢, ROI −9% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 38% (won 4% of 1603) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 20% of 790) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 43% of 856) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 86% of 1018) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | NotJump | surfandturf | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $150 | — | No $7.7K |
| Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker opposite sides · consensus Michal Krajci | Niels Visker $296 | — | Michal Krajci $270 |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata same side · consensus Rinky Hijikata | Rinky Hijikata $6.0K | — | Rinky Hijikata $34K |
| Bratislava 2: Lucas Poullain vs Yannik Kelm same side · consensus Lucas Poullain | Yannik Kelm $220 | — | Yannik Kelm $3 |