Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata

28 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Rinky Hijikata (76%) · Rinky Hijikata at 99¢ · $249K held · ends Nov 9

Luciano Darderi1¢Rinky Hijikata99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rinky Hijikata

Consensus Traders

Rinky Hijikata 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$248.9K

Combined PnL

$-7.4K

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 98.7¢

+12% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralRinky Hijikata at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rinky Hijikata

28 of 37 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Luciano Darderi1%

Rinky Hijikata99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rinky Hijikata28 traders

Total Value$235.0K

Total Shares244,373

Combined PnL+$13.2K

Luciano Darderi9 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares323,381

Combined PnL$-20.6K

Rinky Hijikata — 76%Luciano Darderi — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rinky Hijikata. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Luciano Darderi) and the top 1000 (21 on Rinky Hijikata) disagree here.

whaleRinky Hijikata 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrRinky Hijikata 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuciano Darderi 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rinky Hijikata 67% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Rinky Hijikataavg 98¢	$55.0K	$54.2K	-$813.64	65% 297-160 (457)
UP UpTheBlues	Rinky Hijikataavg 91.6¢	$45.9K	$47.2K	+$1.4K	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
RN1	Rinky Hijikataavg 76.9¢	$30.0K	$35.6K	+$5.6K	54% 58124-50358 (108482)
FL Flaznorp	Rinky Hijikataavg 90.9¢	$17.3K	$18.5K	+$1.2K	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
MO Momo63	Rinky Hijikataavg 97.2¢	$15.5K	$15.6K	+$92.88	93% 897-63 (960)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Rinky Hijikataavg 78.1¢	$11.5K	$13.9K	+$2.4K	52% 5700-5266 (10966)
OM omnibus-076daa	Rinky Hijikataavg 97¢	$10.2K	$10.1K	-$48.95	50% 19814-20154 (39968)
NS NS13CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 9.3¢	$28.8K	$9.9K	$-18.9K	51% 385-363 (748)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Rinky Hijikataavg 85¢	$7.2K	$7.5K	+$296.45	52% 14025-12786 (26811)
65 6512395314597884	Rinky Hijikataavg 81.2¢	$6.4K	$7.4K	+$984.58	49% 2924-3042 (5966)
NO NotJump	Rinky Hijikataavg 89.7¢	$6.3K	$6.5K	+$190.42	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Rinky Hijikataavg 58¢	$4.2K	$5.1K	+$942.82	38% 512-818 (1330)
38 38791873984189	Rinky Hijikataavg 78.1¢	$5.1K	$3.3K	+$622.12	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
TH thestingsnake	Rinky Hijikataavg 83.8¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$285.76	60% 4146-2784 (6930)
SE sentrio	Rinky Hijikataavg 82¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$363.82	50% 24998-24718 (49716)
EU Eulhunter	Rinky Hijikataavg 75.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$238.57	54% 5904-4953 (10857)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 45¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$711.11	54% 745-625 (1370)
1L 1lovejump	Rinky Hijikataavg 83.7¢	$4.3K	$1.1K	+$148.65	53% 677-604 (1281)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Rinky Hijikataavg 70¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15	51% 1591-1532 (3123)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 39¢	$1.0K	$743.59	-$256.41	60% 131-88 (219)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 39¢	$951.22	$707.32	-$243.9	53% 482-430 (912)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 44.4¢	$651.67	$447.54	-$204.14	50% 4084-4020 (8104)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Luciano Darderiavg 42¢	$614.88	$424.56	-$190.32	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
SC SchruteBucks	Rinky Hijikataavg 85.6¢	$1.3K	$386.5	+$4.44	56% 1877-1459 (3336)
tradecraft	Rinky Hijikataavg 81¢	$390.67	$342.58	-$48.09	51% 6151-5871 (12022)

01258787xy48487484545122

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$54,999.43

Value

$54.2K

PnL

-$813.64

Record

65%

297-160 (457)

UpTheBlues

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$45,854.92

Value

$47.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

RN1

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$30,017.95

Value

$35.6K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

54%

58124-50358 (108482)

Flaznorp

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$17,265.02

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

Momo63

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$15,547.12

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$92.88

Record

93%

897-63 (960)

CandleHammerDrums

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$11,465.12

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

52%

5700-5266 (10966)

omnibus-076daa

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$10,194.24

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$48.95

Record

50%

19814-20154 (39968)

NS13CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$28,796.23

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-18.9K

Record

51%

385-363 (748)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$7,215.4

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$296.45

Record

52%

14025-12786 (26811)

6512395314597884

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$6,419.23

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$984.58

Record

49%

2924-3042 (5966)

NotJump

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$6,303.67

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$190.42

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$4,200

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$942.82

Record

38%

512-818 (1330)

38791873984189

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$5,074.56

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$622.12

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

thestingsnake

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$2,541.27

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$285.76

Record

60%

4146-2784 (6930)

sentrio

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$2,824.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$363.82

Record

50%

24998-24718 (49716)

Eulhunter

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$1,062.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$238.57

Record

54%

5904-4953 (10857)

pltrkr111CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$711.11

Record

54%

745-625 (1370)

1lovejump

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$4,337.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$148.65

Record

53%

677-604 (1281)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

1591-1532 (3123)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$1,000

Value

$743.59

PnL

-$256.41

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$951.22

Value

$707.32

PnL

-$243.9

Record

53%

482-430 (912)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$651.67

Value

$447.54

PnL

-$204.14

Record

50%

4084-4020 (8104)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$614.88

Value

$424.56

PnL

-$190.32

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

SchruteBucks

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$1,292.84

Value

$386.5

PnL

+$4.44

Record

56%

1877-1459 (3336)

tradecraft

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$390.67

Value

$342.58

PnL

-$48.09

Record

51%

6151-5871 (12022)

Research grade

NeutralRinky Hijikata at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Rinky Hijikata

28 of 37 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rinky Hijikata. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Luciano Darderi) and the top 1000 (21 on Rinky Hijikata) disagree here.

whaleRinky Hijikata 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrRinky Hijikata 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuciano Darderi 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rinky Hijikata 67% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rinky Hijikata wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.