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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OLOTH | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 96% (533–24, n=557) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 47% (13849–15328, n=29177) |
| Consensus PnL | -$20K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (14 of 14 open) | 90% (143 of 159 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics ±0 pts, n=85 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 99% of 741 at avg 98¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 25% of 4) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 99% (won 99% of 737) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OLOTH | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $11K | No $202K | — | — |