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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OraculumNobius | RN1 | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 91% (5899–570, n=6469) | 47% (13849–15328, n=29177) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.6K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (9 of 9 open) | 50% (2 of 4 open) | 89% (143 of 160 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | Finance ±0 pts, n=369 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 4909 at avg 98¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 2% of 59) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% (won 38% of 8) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% (won 80% of 10) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 98% (won 100% of 4832) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OraculumNobius | RN1 | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.8K | — | No $202K | — |