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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OraculumNobius | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 90% (5332–567, n=5899) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12984–14343, n=27327) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.6K | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (9 of 9 open) | no open consensus position | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 85% (50 of 59 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | Finance ±0 pts, n=369 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 4909 at avg 98¢, ROI 0% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 2% of 59) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% (won 38% of 8) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% (won 80% of 10) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 98% (won 100% of 4832) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OraculumNobius | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.7K | — | — | No $202K |