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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SecondWindCapital | beachboy4 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 28% (8–21, n=29) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | -$491K | $5.8M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #515 | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (5 of 7 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (75 of 104 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 28 at avg 56¢, ROI +34% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 21% (won 83% of 6) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 100% of 4) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 75% of 8) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 90% of 10) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | SecondWindCapital | beachboy4 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $13K | — | — | Yes $272K |