Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
	SpringlyFawl	0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	CORGII	ndb1
Record (consensus markets)	27% (1788–4918, n=6706)	46% (131–154, n=285)	61% (395–248, n=643)	65% (862–456, n=1318)
Consensus PnL	$29K	-$6.6M	$194K	$4.1M
Tracked as	PM monthly #119	was PM monthly #715	PM monthly #68	PM monthly #69
Sides with the consensus	71% (36 of 51 open)	no open consensus position	no open consensus position	68% (48 of 71 open)
Strongest topics	Politics +4 pts n=18, ROI −4%	NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%	Esports +54 pts n=287, ROI +56% Tennis +49 pts n=48, ROI +52% Soccer +48 pts n=64, ROI +50%	Soccer +4 pts n=602, ROI +7% MLB +5 pts n=40, ROI +30% Other Sports +12 pts n=10, ROI +18%
Weakest topic	Economy −12 pts, n=119	College Basketball −12 pts, n=174	—	NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won	21% of 2264 at avg 25¢, ROI −2%	49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%	98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%	64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢	70% (won 2% of 1586)	0% (won 17% of 6)	9% (won 92% of 36)	13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢	6% (won 40% of 141)	42% (won 46% of 565)	56% (won 99% of 223)	20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢	10% (won 57% of 230)	57% (won 51% of 766)	33% (won 100% of 133)	24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up	14% (won 85% of 307)	0% (won 100% of 4)	2% (won 100% of 7)	43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	SpringlyFawl	0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	CORGII	ndb1
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? same side · consensus Yes	No $28	—	—	No $17