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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SpringlyFawl | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 27% (1788–4918, n=6706) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) |
| Consensus PnL | $29K | $5.6M | $11.0M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #119 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (36 of 51 open) | no open consensus position | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 55% (24 of 44 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Economy −12 pts, n=119 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 21% of 2264 at avg 25¢, ROI −2% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 70% (won 2% of 1586) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 40% of 141) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 57% of 230) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 85% of 307) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.