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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Xyp9xFan0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1CORGII
Record (consensus markets)54% (452–385, n=837)46% (131–154, n=285)47% (13871–15347, n=29218)61% (395–248, n=643)
Consensus PnL-$135K-$6.6M$14.8M$194K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #617was PM monthly #715PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #68
Sides with the consensusno open consensus positionno open consensus position56% (27 of 48 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • MLB +12 pts n=19, ROI −8%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicMMA −7 pts, n=24College Basketball −12 pts, n=174——
Settled positions, side won54% of 812 at avg 52¢, ROI −3%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 27% of 95)0% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 57% of 2537)9% (won 92% of 36)
Entries 30–50¢30% (won 49% of 242)42% (won 46% of 565)22% (won 94% of 5518)56% (won 99% of 223)
Entries 50–70¢44% (won 55% of 359)57% (won 51% of 766)36% (won 99% of 8928)33% (won 100% of 133)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 82% of 116)0% (won 100% of 4)32% (won 100% of 7821)2% (won 100% of 7)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.