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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4BreakTheBankmildwindow27
Record (consensus markets)no settled market46% (560–666, n=1226)39% (5027–7815, n=12842)
Consensus PnL—$11.2M$69K
Tracked as—PM monthly #2PM monthly #348
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position48% (10 of 21 open)88% (147 of 168 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——Weather −4 pts, n=1229
Settled positions, side won—97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%42% of 4985 at avg 45¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 81% of 57)54% (won 1% of 2673)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 201)2% (won 43% of 124)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 196)4% (won 55% of 214)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 109)40% (won 96% of 1974)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.