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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4CORGII00gringo000x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeea
Record (consensus markets)68% (43–20, n=63)62% (395–247, n=642)75% (6–2, n=8)41% (1101–1610, n=2711)
Consensus PnL$5.8M$4.5M$3.5M$2.9M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #24PM monthly #68was PM monthly #19PM monthly #410
Sides with the consensus100% (2 of 2 open)0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position55% (32 of 58 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
none with 10+ settled
  • MMA +12 pts n=46, ROI +8%
Weakest topicNBA −6 pts, n=93——College Basketball −9 pts, n=137
Settled positions, side won57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%40% of 3652 at avg 41¢, ROI −3%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 17% of 6)9% (won 92% of 36)0%34% (won 6% of 1254)
Entries 30–50¢30% (won 57% of 63)56% (won 99% of 223)0%25% (won 36% of 922)
Entries 50–70¢54% (won 51% of 115)33% (won 100% of 133)100% (won 86% of 7)29% (won 64% of 1045)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 86% of 29)2% (won 100% of 7)0%12% (won 89% of 431)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbeachboy4CORGII00gringo000x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeea
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $65——Yes $1.3K