← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| beachboy4 | Gucky-45 | joseph00677 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 32% (749–1577, n=2326) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 66% (875–457, n=1332) |
| Consensus PnL | $5.9M | $166K | $5.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #366 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #22 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 86% (226 of 264 open) | no open consensus position | 71% (95 of 134 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | NFL −4 pts, n=52 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 3% of 1918 at avg 3¢, ROI 0% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 98% (won 2% of 1883) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 1% (won 29% of 21) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 1% (won 70% of 10) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 0% (won 75% of 4) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | beachboy4 | Gucky-45 | joseph00677 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $251 | — | No $835 |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | Yes $69 | — | No $345 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | — | Yes $588 | — | Yes $9.7K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | — | Yes $13 | — | Yes $3 |