Consensus PnL $179K · win rate 34% (792–1524, n=2316) · PM monthly #346 · holds 130 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$178.5K
Record
792W / 1524L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 2316 settled
Batting Avg
47.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2488
Source
PM monthly #346
Record (90 d)
7/417 · 2%
Trades
4,022
Markets
2,946
Volume
$33.7M
Top consensus positions
130 in listed consensus markets · 110 of 130 on the consensus side (85%)- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $1.8K · now 5¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $1.3K · now 7¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $468 · now 17¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $455 · now 2¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $420 · now 2¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $406 · now 23¢with the consensus (92% of 52)
- Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $225 · now 8¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $190 · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
Specialties
1,918 settled consensus markets · held side won 3% at an average entry of 3¢- Esports
+13 pts
side won 18% of 17 · avg entry 4¢
ROI 0%
- Culture
+4 pts
side won 12% of 17 · avg entry 8¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 0% of 52 at an average 4¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 98%(won 2% of 1883)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 29% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 70% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 75% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.