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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lightningbolts | ndb1 | S-Works | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (442–307, n=749) | 63% (1096–631, n=1727) | 75% (2542–853, n=3395) |
| Consensus PnL | $92K | $4.6M | $3.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #565 | PM monthly #113 | PM monthly #55 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 72% (73 of 101 open) | 71% (5 of 7 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −8 pts, n=147 | Crypto −1 pts, n=46 |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 299 at avg 60¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 100% of 10) | 13% (won 14% of 187) | 6% (won 14% of 145) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 21% (won 100% of 64) | 19% (won 39% of 269) | 16% (won 48% of 367) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 45% (won 100% of 136) | 23% (won 57% of 328) | 23% (won 60% of 509) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 100% of 89) | 44% (won 94% of 622) | 55% (won 96% of 1235) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lightningbolts | ndb1 | S-Works |
|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner same side · consensus Bilibili Gaming | Bilibili Gaming $2.5K | — | Bilibili Gaming $591K |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner same side · consensus T1 | Bilibili Gaming $2.8K | — | Bilibili Gaming $11K |