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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| muddyrc | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 51% (159–152, n=311) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $25K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (9 of 15 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 52% (32 of 62 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics ±0 pts, n=192 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 50% of 401 at avg 51¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 16% of 115) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 27% (won 35% of 108) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 61% of 61) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 93% of 117) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | muddyrc | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 | — |