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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ndb1 | realbengvir | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (875–459, n=1334) | 58% (22–16, n=38) | 47% (14256–15876, n=30132) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.1M | $42K | $14.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #25 | PM monthly #487 | PM monthly #18 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (29 of 41 open) | 90% (26 of 29 open) | 61% (34 of 56 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
|
|
| Weakest topic | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=10 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 68% of 31 at avg 72¢, ROI −1% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 19% (won 0% of 6) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 6% (won 0% of 2) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 6% (won 100% of 2) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 68% (won 90% of 21) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | realbengvir | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $76K | Yes $775 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $3.2K | Yes $9.4K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9M | Yes $75K | — | — |