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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| tnl | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (541–489, n=1030) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 61% (495–321, n=816) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$38K | -$77K | -$352K | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #841 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #51 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (38 of 51 open) | no open consensus position | 69% (9 of 13 open) | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Elections −13 pts, n=17 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 52% of 993 at avg 50¢, ROI +1% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 25% (won 17% of 248) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 15% (won 29% of 125) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 44% of 245) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 34% (won 58% of 283) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 25% (won 60% of 248) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 43% (won 69% of 354) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 25% (won 86% of 252) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 7% (won 80% of 60) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | tnl | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $35K | — | — | No $335K |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5.5K | — | — | No $83K |
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | — | Yes $7.4K | No $146 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? same side · consensus No | Yes $1.9K | — | — | Yes $2.3K |
| Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | — | Yes $525 |