Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

1 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (7%) · No at 84¢ · $176K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 7%

Total Value

$176.3K

Combined PnL

$959.81

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 15 top traders (7%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$158.7K

Total Shares190,002

Combined PnL+$64.61

Yes14 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares106,904

Combined PnL+$895.19

No — 7%Yes — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

625h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
M4 M4ken168	Noavg 83.5¢	$158.6K	$158.7K	+$64.61	59% 34-24 (58)
mr.oziCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$6.6K	$6.8K	+$205.21	68% 1240-582 (1822)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 16.9¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$79.43	39% 397-627 (1024)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$185.49	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
timebrotimeCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$70	67% 893-435 (1328)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$1.0K	$916.67	-$83.33	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$140	$824.99	+$589.77	60% 1348-884 (2232)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$736.74	$715.07	-$21.66	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 16.1¢	$31.04	$186.92	+$133.5	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$140	$165	+$25	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$92.65	$99.86	+$7.2	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$64	$66	+$2	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$22.95	$22.28	-$0.68	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$4.23	$6.05	+$2.02	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
RI RichiddCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$1	$1.1	+$0.1	46% 47-56 (103)

M4ken168

Invested

$158,601.58

Value

$158.7K

PnL

+$64.61

Record

59%

34-24 (58)

mr.oziCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,565.41

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$205.21

Record

68%

1240-582 (1822)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,159.2

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$79.43

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,289.51

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$185.49

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

timebrotimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,380

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$70

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$916.67

PnL

-$83.33

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$824.99

PnL

+$589.77

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$736.74

Value

$715.07

PnL

-$21.66

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$31.04

Value

$186.92

PnL

+$133.5

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$165

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.65

Value

$99.86

PnL

+$7.2

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$66

PnL

+$2

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.95

Value

$22.28

PnL

-$0.68

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.23

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$2.02

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

RichiddCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 15 top traders (7%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

625h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.